Should The Dutch Scientist Publish His Super-Influenza Virus Research? Future Epidemics Could Be Prevented With The Risk Of Killing Millions
As many of you well know, a Dutch scientist named Ron Fouchier managed to create a super deadly variant of H5N1 virus . He presented his work at a conference dedicated to influenza this September. The Dutch scientist now wants to publish his findings and different sources perceived this move as a global threat, that could lead to the loss of countless lives. But could the scientific community also benefit from the publication of such a study?
The first thing probably everybody was thinking at, after reading that article probably was terrorism. A terrorist that could be able to reproduce the results of this study. This would result in a devastating scenario. We do not want terrorists starting to think that biological agents are a viable and effective weapon, when counter terrorist organizations hardly started to be experienced in combating conventional terrorist methods. There are rare cases when terrorism has regarded a disease as a viable weapon. A microbial or viral agent is very ineffective without an appropriate way to disperse it. But Fouchier’s new H5N1 virus is highly contagious. One hundred infected terrorists could enter the New York City subway system leading to devastating consequences. Human to human transmission would be in this case the simplest “dispersal device”. And it became quite clear lately that terrorist resources are not limited to this.
On the other hand the US could be regarded as trying to prevent the discovery of antidote for the deadly influenza-virus.
The new virus is so deadly and contagious because it hosts five new mutations compared to the former influenza virus. The research evidentiated that all these five mutations can be found in nature but not combined in a single microorganism. But what if the virus naturally acquires all five mutations leading to an unstoppable global pandemic? The collection of mutations exists separately in nature. This does not necessarily mean that they will be someday found combined in a single strain. It is a matter of probability. Can mankind assume this risk? Individual mutation of a pathogen happens very often in nature, but what most people do not know is that that certain strain evolution is very rare.
Those that support the idea of publishing the paper actually think that it could enable the scientific community to anticipate, therefore better react to a possible future scenario if a highly contagious outbreak occurs.
In the end you can not have it both ways. In order for a vaccine and a protective measure to be discovered the research should be published. But what about the risks?
17 Responses to Should The Dutch Scientist Publish His Super-Influenza Virus Research? Future Epidemics Could Be Prevented With The Risk Of Killing Millions
Quite a Catch-22. Publishing the research means it’s out there for anyone to read, with good or bad intentions. That risk alone makes me err on the side of not wanting to see it published.
However, none of us know how likely it is that the virus could mutate like it did here, but naturally. If the possibility is remote, I would certainly be against publishing the research. However, we don’t know how likely because the research hasn’t been published.
What is being neglected is the fact that no antidote would be needed if this freaking monster hadn’t created this virus in the first place. Then there would be no need to debate over publishing the article. When will common sense come back to humanity?
Of course the results should not be published! Is this a joke or a real question?
If this is what the thinking process is in the brains of so called scientist then we are all doomed by our own lack of common sense.
It is apparent that at some point over the last three decades a scientist discovered a way to disperse a stimulant in the world that would make millions devoid of any emotional IQ! God, “stupid is as stupid does”
I guess the horror flicks do come true, DUH!
Yeah sure, publish it, no big deal. You’re only giving some people who abuse it the power to destroy half the world. Nothing big right? I mean.. we will still have the other half of the world if that part doesn’t get infected after all. And if it does: we started from scratch once i’m sure we can do it again ;D
*sarcasm*
If aint one thing its another you guys should waste your time curing cancer and other diseases and making the world better for generations to come instead of killing half the world off. like the other comment said start from scratch it doesnt matter to the higher up anyways were all just lab rats waiting to be tested!!!
Since we don’t even know how to cure a regular flu virus, or any virus at all for that matter, I don’t understand the benefit of creating a super virus. The best we can do is develop a vaccine for it. However, as soon as it mutates again, which will only take a few transmissions, that vaccine will be ineffective because vaccines are developed for specific strains. Furthermore, even if an effective vaccine is created, if this supervirus is released, anyone who can’t afford the vaccine or who doesn’t bother with flu shots is screwed.
I’ve heard a few arguments that terrorists wouldn’t bother to release this because it would kill off any fellow believers. I’ve met Christians who want things like this to happen because they believe it will bring about the Second Coming of Jesus. In that case, a few fellow dead Christians would probably be considered acceptable collateral damage.
Hi AC,
I’m a Christian and I assure you that I don’t know a single Christian who wants this kind of thing to happen. Jesus said, “I came that they might have life, and that more abundantly.” That said, the Book of Revelation is very clear that the final seven years of human history will be marked by deadly pandemics, among other horrors. We Christians don’t want anyone at all to suffer these horrors, but we didn’t write the book. The end of the age is a time of reaping. Mankind has mostly abandoned God, or concocted rituals and religions that are a cheap masquerade of righteousness. God offers us complete forgiveness if we will just face our sins and turn humbly to Him for the forgiveness He bought with His perfect life and His death on the cross. We don’t have to reap what we have sown. Like the saying, “Karma’s a b*&^%,” well, reaping the consequences of mankind’s rebellion against God is gonna really be brutal. This vile virus is a piece of the puzzle. Christ offers us complete absolution through merely trusting Him. He offers us eternal life. He offers us a son or daughter’s inheritance in the kingdom of God. Take Him up on it. I did and I aver that His words are true and all our longings and yearnings are met in Him.
I mostly agree with the need for heated controversy here, however, the whole debate leaves a lot of important things out of the scope, such as – it is not necessary for terrorists to be able to reproduce a viral research to deploy it, all they need is to learn about such research (consider done, duh) and be able to get into the lab where the virus is stored (presumably not so heavily guarded either). Then again, the research does not need to be published in a “high visibility” peer reviewed journal to be of use for other researches in the field. Most top researchers in any area of science, and particular in a very narrow field such as influenza virology, know each other in person, and I can guarantee you that they all could get the hold of the paper via a personal request, should the need be. So debate is great, but it seems like on both accounts way misplaced!
good point…
This is a potentially catastrophic situation. Even if the published paper was kept limited to peers in the scientific field, there is no guarantee that it would not reach further out. If the virus is this powerful, it would not just be a target for terrorists, but for anyone who wants to hold the world to ransom. It’s like something out of a Hollywood movie – but there are no happy endings and saving-the-day in the real world. Scientists creating potentially lethal viruses in labs need to be aware of the dangerous situation they are creating. Didn’t the foot and mouth crisis in the UK begin because of leaks from a lab? Accidents happen – but to risk wiping out half the population of the planet just because of the publicaion of a scientific paper? How big would a scientist’s ego have to be to think that this was even worth considering?
I don’t think there’s any way you can keep bad people from getting their hands on it if it’s published.
A large part of the problem, as I see it, is that you have to come up with a new vaccination for each strain of a virus. So having a vaccination for this virus wouldn’t help if the virus that spreads is different. And of course, there’s no conceivable way they’re going to vaccinate even close to everyone, even if they had the vaccination already made and it was cheap.
I’m pretty sure wiping out half the world population that quickly would result in the complete collapse of our world’s economic system.
If published, terrorists WOULD spread it. There are way too many people who want to hurt Western nations and will sacrifice their own life to do it. All they would have to do is infect themselves, then fly into a bunch of major airports, infecting thousands of incoming and outgoing passengers in the world’s largest cities.
If a pandemic ever happens naturally, that can be the practice. If it doesn’t, then don’t worry about it. If you want something to practice on, come up with something that ISN’T super deadly, so when you screw up (which you will, since you have no practice dealing with it) you won’t have a couple billion corpses and the probable end of humanity.
This will be the end of us all and the end of the world as we know it. I hope the scientist and people who support this burn in hell !!!
As a former =NBC=-officer my reply is:
What the hack, don’t we have enough problems with humans inventions that possibly will be missused as a potential weapon AGAINST us humans ourselves; sooner,’1e’ WORLD war:-B=io-\-C=hemical’s or later,’2e’[-half] world war:(radar,rocket),-N=uclear A-bomb and all that followed up until now, proliferation and terrorism.
The wish of man(kind) to be able to ‘fly’ (to travel worldwide far+fast motorised: auto, plane; train, boat included) has proven several severe downsides, risks: these can and are actually been used as lethal weapon (traffic casualties by high speedcar[bomb], flagbombarding, 9.11; airports+stations: mass public risks: strategical goals).
As an applied-scientist within historical perspective: THIS is just the way mankind developes in time: shockwise with a (dis)continueous accelarating speed (speet in Dutch is regret btw); relative recently: communication-”flight’ computing internet, thisUSemedium; word,letter,messenger,flag,smoke,light,paper,prébinairycode M0rse, telegraphe,telephone,radio,radar,TV,cable,computer,satellite,laser,internet,glassfiber,mobile wireless communication, next…nano-nerve-think…android..
ManMadeMeans.
In science: Search : what can be discovered + made will be, at a certain time; since sincere science human knowledge is seen as “free of value”: not good or bad in principle; only by the way applications are used, consequences will show what’s good or bad use, so always in retrospective (ethical & legal regulated),so Search & Rescue also.
As responsable human beeing I say (after others): As knowledge equals power, it also increases sorrow (fear) which too(l) may give power óver us, i.e. by others of whom we don’t know for certain how they will use this know-ledge-how sorrow health.
It’s human future past possibility tragedy: almost godlikely must,tower builder/distroyer: so do send cosmic baken:
Public Health dedication by high tech also,sure…Save Our Body + Souls…m0rs€…S.O.S.: …—…